Volume 14, Issue 1 (5-2023)
Res Anim Prod 2023, 14(1): 112-120 |
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Nadi M, Rahmaninia J, Mohammad Nazari B. (2023). Quantifying the Impact of Climate Change on Milk Production in One of Industerial Livestock Farms in Babolsar. Res Anim Prod. 14(1), 112-120. doi:10.61186/rap.14.39.112
URL: http://rap.sanru.ac.ir/article-1-1347-en.html
URL: http://rap.sanru.ac.ir/article-1-1347-en.html
1- Department of water engineering, Faculty of Agricultural Engineering, Sari Agricultural sciences and Natural Resources University, Sari, Iran
2- Animal Science Research Institute of Iran, Agricultural Research, Education and Extension Organization (AREEO), Karaj, Iran
3- Expert of the Ministry of Agriculture - Jihad, Deputy of Livestock Affairs, Animal Breeding and Productions Improvement Center, Karaj, Iran
2- Animal Science Research Institute of Iran, Agricultural Research, Education and Extension Organization (AREEO), Karaj, Iran
3- Expert of the Ministry of Agriculture - Jihad, Deputy of Livestock Affairs, Animal Breeding and Productions Improvement Center, Karaj, Iran
Abstract: (2039 Views)
Introduction and Objective: The scientists believe that human intervention has caused changes in climate conditions and these changes will be noteworthy in the future. Any significant change in climate variables can affect the milk production of industrial livestock farms.
Material and Methods: In this research, the effect of temperature-humidity Index (THI) on milk production in Babolsar city was quantified, and then, using the SDSM model, the THI index was downscaled to the year 2100. Finally, the effect of climate change on milk production until the end of current century in three emission scenarios of RCP2.6, 4.5, and 8.5 were quantified.
Results: The results showed that in the current situations, Babolsar station has been involved in temperature-humidity stress for 5 months of the year, which will increase to 7 months by the end of this century. Also, the results showed that in near future (before 2050) the stress condition is not much different from the base period, but after that, even in RCP2.6 scenario, the differences with the base period will increase significantly, and the most intensity of stress level will occur., As a result, on more days of the year, heavy livestocks will experience tempreture-humidity stress. Quantification of the effect of temperature-humidity stress on milk production showed that for increase of one unit of daily THI more than 70, the milk production of each animal decreases by 327 grams. The investigation of milk reduction trend in the future showed that until the year 2100, not only the milk production will decrease in more months of the year, moreover, the daily losses of livestock farmers also increase. so that in the stressful months, the daily milk reduction from 1 to 2 kg per animal in base period, will increase to 1.5 to 3.5 kg. So, the losses caused by climate change on milk producers will increase by at least 45 and at most more than 100 percent.
Conclusion: According to the results of this research, the stress level of emergency will occur in the last decades of this century, which will lead to a sharp decrease in milk production. Therefore, if adaptation policies to climate change are not considered in the future, there may be happens widespread deaths of heavy livestock especially in critical months of July and August, which is a serious alarm for livestock industry of the Mazandaran province.
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